Srinagar, June 19: Crypto investors have been facing a tough time since the inception of the Russia Ukraine war.
But the situation has turned especially dire in the last few weeks. On June 19, 2022, Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency, fell to $18,000. It is over 70 per cent lower than its peak price of $64,000 in November 2021. In the last 24 hours alone, it had fallen over 11 per cent, however, bounced back from lows. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Cordano, Avalanche and Dogecoin have also fallen.
Why are crypto prices falling?
Crypto prices have been falling due to a major sell-off by the investors. As the digital token has no intrinsic value, it is currently guided largely by only demand factors. With the bank rates rising, the investors are taking refuge in the bank deposits to save their money, pulling their investment out of the cryptocurrencies.
Along with this, the high inflation and projected recession among major western economies, have also put digital tokens under high pressure. It is for the first time since the launch of these tokens, that they have to face such macroeconomic uncertainty.
As of 10 PM (IST), Bicoin (BTC) was trading at $19,500, Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $1,057, according to WazirX.
What to expect?
The crypto investors may be in trouble if the macroeconomic factors do not improve in the coming days. The carnage is not limited to the crypto market. Several share markets across the globe have lost 5 per cent of their value in the last week, including India’s Nifty. Indian share markets fell to the yearly low last week.
Bitcoin eyes $40K after breaching $38K for first time since May 2022
The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value, Bitcoin (BTC), rose to levels not seen since May 2022 on Friday, the day after the American Thanksgiving holiday, amid calm trading in traditional markets, CoinDesk reported.
The price of the cryptocurrency dropped to levels around $37,800 after momentarily touching $38,000 earlier on Friday morning. Now that it has remained over the $38,000 barrier for a few hours, Bitcoin looks like it is trying to move higher.
The uptick in price comes as investors are expecting a possible approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
“With the BTC ETF lurking around the corner – which may be Jan .11 for the 14b1 consent (not s1 approval) there will be a new layer of volatility to the market,” Laurent Kssis was quoted as saying by CoinDesk.
“Due to the ease of trade and cost-effectiveness, a bitcoin ETF will attract more turnover in volumes from institutional investors currently not seen on crypto exchanges as they are not allowed to execute on these non-regulated exchanges by their compliance depts,” explained Kssis.
Kssis predicts that bitcoin could rally to $40,000 over the weekend.
“When approved, the volatility of BTC will be significant during these periods which create additional risks for investors but as well opportunities for those arbitraging. Would not be surprised if we see 40K being broken this weekend,” Kssis said.
Ether (ETH), the second largest cryptocurrency by market value, also gained over 3% on Friday.
MATIC soars 80% in one month
MATIC has witnessed a notable price resurgence, surging from $0.503 to a high of $0.927 in the past month—an impressive 84% increase, ranking it among the top gainers on CoinMarketCap.
IntoTheBlock reports a significant uptick in institutional and whale demand across the crypto sector. Notably, Polygon’s scaling solution experienced a 3,800% surge in large transactions (over $100,000) last month, contributing significantly to MATIC’s climb above $0.90 for the first time since May.
With a market cap of $8.2 billion, MATIC now holds the 13th position among cryptocurrencies. Despite this bullish trend, investors should exercise caution, considering the proximity to the July 13 wick levels, potentially indicating a formation of a double-top pattern on the daily chart, a signal of a possible trend reversal.
Bitcoin likely to reclaim $40,000
From an on-chain perspective, the bulls appear to be firmly in control of the Bitcoin markets in November so far. If the miners keep accumulating, the BTC price is like to reclaim the $40,000 in the weeks ahead.
The Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) data, which groups the current BTC holders according to their entry prices, also confirms this bullish forecast.
It shows that BTC must scale the $38,600 resistance for the bulls to be confident of flipping $40,000. As depicted below, 624,090 holders had bought 309,880 BTC at an average price of $38,612. If those holders sell early, they could slow down the rally significantly.
But if that resistance level caves, Bitcoin price will likely reclaim $40,000 as predicted.
On the downside, the bears could negate the optimistic prediction if the BTC price reverses below $33,000.
But, in that case, the 2 million BTC holders who bought 604,200 BTC at the minimum price of $33,900 will mount a support wall. If those investors can HODL, BTC price will likely defend the $34,000 territory and prevent a significant bearish reversal.
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